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10 of 10 matches with xG: 23 goals from 23.9 xG (0.96 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Goianiense 2–2 Corinthians | 3.08–0.43 | 89% · 8% · 3% | Draw against the xG: Atletico Goianiense had 89% |
| Juventude 1–1 Vitoria | 0.68–0.48 | 35% · 42% · 22% | Draw in line with xG |
| Botafogo 1–0 Fluminense | 1.75–0.22 | 76% · 20% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Botafogo |
| RB Bragantino 1–2 Atlético Mineiro | 1.18–1.01 | 40% · 29% · 31% | Close call, Atlético Mineiro won |
| Cruzeiro 2–1 Cuiaba | 1.01–1.68 | 23% · 24% · 53% | Won against the xG: Cruzeiro |
| Internacional 0–0 Sao Paulo | 0.20–0.79 | 9% · 43% · 48% | Draw in line with xG |
| Flamengo 2–1 Gremio | 0.96–0.98 | 34% · 31% · 35% | Close call, Flamengo won |
| Athletico Paranaense 3–1 Criciuma | 2.69–1.40 | 65% · 17% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Athletico Paranaense |
| Bahia 1–0 Fortaleza EC | 1.43–1.28 | 41% · 26% · 34% | Win in line with xG for Bahia |
| Palmeiras 2–0 Vasco da Gama | 2.36–0.24 | 85% · 12% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Palmeiras |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.