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10 of 10 matches with xG: 30 goals from 31.5 xG (0.95 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense 3–0 Atlético Mineiro | 1.68–0.13 | 77% · 20% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Fluminense |
| RB Bragantino 1–0 Gremio | 3.08–0.31 | 91% · 7% · 2% | Win in line with xG for RB Bragantino |
| Internacional 2–0 Botafogo | 1.62–0.93 | 54% · 25% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Internacional |
| Corinthians 3–0 Mirassol | 2.14–1.60 | 50% · 21% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Corinthians |
| Vasco da Gama 4–3 Vitoria | 3.18–1.34 | 74% · 14% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Vasco da Gama |
| Sao Paulo 2–3 Palmeiras | 1.86–1.22 | 52% · 23% · 25% | Won against the xG: Palmeiras |
| Bahia 1–0 Flamengo | 0.60–0.72 | 27% · 40% · 34% | Close call, Bahia won |
| Juventude 1–2 Fortaleza EC | 1.80–1.86 | 38% · 22% · 40% | Win in line with xG for Fortaleza EC |
| Cruzeiro 1–1 Sport Recife | 1.74–2.29 | 30% · 20% · 50% | Draw against the xG: Sport Recife had 50% |
| Ceara 3–0 Santos | 1.83–1.52 | 45% · 23% · 32% | Win in line with xG for Ceara |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.