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10 of 10 matches with xG: 29 goals from 25.2 xG (1.15 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras 5–1 RB Bragantino | 2.94–1.13 | 74% · 14% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Palmeiras |
| Botafogo 0–3 Flamengo | 1.06–0.96 | 37% · 31% · 32% | Close call, Flamengo won |
| Mirassol 3–1 Internacional | 1.55–0.98 | 51% · 26% · 24% | Win in line with xG for Mirassol |
| Sport Recife 1–1 Ceara | 1.59–0.84 | 55% · 25% · 20% | Draw against the xG: Sport Recife had 55% |
| Santos 3–1 Corinthians | 1.56–0.62 | 60% · 25% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Santos |
| Atlético Mineiro 1–1 Cruzeiro | 0.95–0.59 | 43% · 35% · 22% | Draw in line with xG |
| Fortaleza EC 0–2 Vasco da Gama | 1.91–0.49 | 72% · 20% · 9% | Won against the xG: Vasco da Gama |
| Gremio 2–0 Sao Paulo | 2.79–0.97 | 75% · 14% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Gremio |
| Fluminense 1–0 Juventude | 0.65–0.50 | 33% · 43% · 24% | Close call, Fluminense won |
| Vitoria 2–1 Bahia | 2.12–0.98 | 64% · 20% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Vitoria |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.