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9 of 10 matches with xG: 29 goals from 25.4 xG (1.14 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Mineiro 2–2 Palmeiras | 0.53–1.22 | 16% · 31% · 53% | Draw against the xG: Palmeiras had 53% |
| Internacional 0–1 Athletico Paranaense | 2.08–1.02 | 62% · 20% · 18% | Won against the xG: Athletico Paranaense |
| Vitoria 2–0 Remo | 2.70–0.79 | 78% · 14% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Vitoria |
| Fluminense 2–1 Gremio | 2.25–1.58 | 53% · 20% · 27% | Win in line with xG for Fluminense |
| Chapecoense 4–2 Santos | 1.80–1.23 | 51% · 23% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Chapecoense |
| Corinthians 1–2 Bahia | 1.69–1.58 | 41% · 23% · 36% | Close call, Bahia won |
| Sao Paulo 2–1 Flamengo | 0.72–2.18 | 11% · 18% · 71% | Won against the xG: Sao Paulo |
| Mirassol 2–1 Vasco da Gama | 0.59–0.54 | 30% · 43% · 27% | Close call, Mirassol won |
| Botafogo 4–0 Cruzeiro | 1.43–1.43 | 38% · 25% · 38% | Close call, Botafogo won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.