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3 of 10 matches with xG: 12 goals from 9.3 xG (1.29 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tombense 2–2 Criciuma | 1.49–1.58 | 36% · 24% · 40% | Draw in line with xG |
| Novorizontino 3–1 Vila Nova | 2.37–1.05 | 67% · 18% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Novorizontino |
| Ponte Preta 2–2 Vitoria | 0.23–2.58 | 2% · 10% · 88% | Draw against the xG: Vitoria had 88% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.