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5 of 10 matches with xG: 4 goals from 7.9 xG (0.51 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mirassol 0–0 Sampaio Correa | 0.92–0.56 | 42% · 36% · 21% | Draw in line with xG |
| Avai 1–0 Criciuma | 0.67–1.58 | 16% · 25% · 59% | Won against the xG: Avai |
| Ituano 1–1 Guarani Campinas | 1.17–0.96 | 41% · 29% · 30% | Draw in line with xG |
| CRB 0–0 Botafogo SP | 0.62–0.12 | 42% · 51% · 6% | Draw in line with xG |
| Sport Recife 1–0 Novorizontino | 0.63–0.63 | 30% · 41% · 30% | Close call, Sport Recife won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.