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5 of 10 matches with xG: 8 goals from 9.5 xG (0.85 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ituano 0–0 Vila Nova | 0.41–0.57 | 21% · 47% · 32% | Draw in line with xG |
| Mirassol 1–0 Operario-PR | 0.75–0.52 | 37% · 40% · 23% | Close call, Mirassol won |
| Coritiba 1–0 Chapecoense | 1.22–0.50 | 54% · 31% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Coritiba |
| Sport Recife 3–1 Ponte Preta | 1.32–1.41 | 35% · 26% · 39% | Close call, Sport Recife won |
| Avai 1–1 Botafogo SP | 2.18–0.58 | 74% · 17% · 8% | Draw against the xG: Avai had 74% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.