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10 of 10 matches with xG: 22 goals from 24.5 xG (0.90 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operario-PR 1–2 Ituano | 1.02–0.71 | 42% · 33% · 25% | Won against the xG: Ituano |
| Vila Nova 2–0 Sport Recife | 1.98–0.71 | 67% · 20% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Vila Nova |
| Novorizontino 1–1 America Mineiro | 0.34–0.22 | 24% · 61% · 15% | Draw in line with xG |
| Chapecoense 0–4 Guarani Campinas | 1.85–2.19 | 33% · 20% · 46% | Win in line with xG for Guarani Campinas |
| Santos 0–1 Avai | 2.14–1.00 | 63% · 20% · 17% | Won against the xG: Avai |
| Ceara 1–2 Mirassol | 2.21–1.22 | 60% · 20% · 20% | Won against the xG: Mirassol |
| Amazonas 2–0 CRB | 2.63–0.11 | 91% · 8% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Amazonas |
| Ponte Preta 1–1 Goias | 1.52–1.49 | 39% · 24% · 37% | Draw in line with xG |
| Brusque 0–1 Coritiba | 0.74–1.08 | 25% · 32% · 43% | Win in line with xG for Coritiba |
| Botafogo SP 1–1 Paysandu | 0.83–0.51 | 40% · 38% · 21% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.