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8 of 10 matches with xG: 17 goals from 18.2 xG (0.93 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Amazonas 2–1 Ponte Preta | 1.61–1.25 | 46% · 25% · 30% | Win in line with xG for Amazonas |
| Operario-PR 2–3 Vila Nova | 0.93–0.90 | 35% · 33% · 33% | Close call, Vila Nova won |
| Novorizontino 1–0 Ituano | 0.88–0.19 | 52% · 40% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Novorizontino |
| CRB 0–2 Ceara | 1.14–1.70 | 26% · 24% · 50% | Win in line with xG for Ceara |
| Guarani Campinas 1–1 Santos | 0.78–0.31 | 44% · 42% · 14% | Draw in line with xG |
| Mirassol 1–2 Botafogo SP | 1.43–1.19 | 43% · 26% · 31% | Close call, Botafogo SP won |
| America Mineiro 0–0 Chapecoense | 2.22–1.78 | 48% · 20% · 31% | Draw in line with xG |
| Sport Recife 0–1 Coritiba | 0.82–1.08 | 27% · 31% · 41% | Win in line with xG for Coritiba |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.