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9 of 10 matches with xG: 23 goals from 23.7 xG (0.97 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| CRB 0–1 Coritiba | 1.66–1.14 | 50% · 24% · 26% | Won against the xG: Coritiba |
| Vila Nova 0–0 Operario-PR | 0.83–1.07 | 28% · 31% · 41% | Draw in line with xG |
| Novorizontino 3–1 America Mineiro | 2.47–2.03 | 48% · 19% · 32% | Win in line with xG for Novorizontino |
| Paysandu 2–2 Atletico Goianiense | 0.51–2.39 | 6% · 15% · 79% | Draw against the xG: Atletico Goianiense had 79% |
| Athletico Paranaense 0–1 Goias | 1.15–0.87 | 42% · 30% · 28% | Close call, Goias won |
| Criciuma 2–1 Ferroviária | 1.76–1.40 | 46% · 23% · 31% | Win in line with xG for Criciuma |
| Chapecoense 1–1 Remo | 2.35–0.35 | 82% · 13% · 4% | Draw against the xG: Chapecoense had 82% |
| Athletic Club 4–0 Avai | 1.01–0.69 | 42% · 33% · 24% | Win in line with xG for Athletic Club |
| Cuiaba 3–1 Amazonas | 1.72–0.29 | 73% · 21% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Cuiaba |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.