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10 of 10 matches with xG: 26 goals from 26.5 xG (0.98 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operario-PR 2–1 Juventude | 2.86–0.38 | 88% · 9% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Operario-PR |
| Criciuma 1–0 Londrina | 0.89–0.46 | 44% · 38% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Criciuma |
| CRB 2–3 São Bernardo | 1.93–1.69 | 44% · 22% · 34% | Close call, São Bernardo won |
| America Mineiro 1–2 Atletico Goianiense | 1.49–2.88 | 18% · 16% · 66% | Win in line with xG for Atletico Goianiense |
| Vila Nova 1–0 Botafogo SP | 0.52–0.62 | 25% · 43% · 32% | Close call, Vila Nova won |
| Nautico Recife 0–1 Fortaleza EC | 2.24–0.19 | 85% · 13% · 2% | Won against the xG: Fortaleza EC |
| Ponte Preta 1–2 Cuiaba | 1.12–0.57 | 49% · 32% · 19% | Won against the xG: Cuiaba |
| Ceara 2–1 Avai | 0.93–0.40 | 47% · 37% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Ceara |
| Goias 0–4 Novorizontino | 2.08–2.72 | 30% · 18% · 52% | Win in line with xG for Novorizontino |
| Sport Recife 1–1 Athletic Club | 1.66–0.83 | 57% · 24% · 19% | Draw against the xG: Sport Recife had 57% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.