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10 of 10 matches with xG: 19 goals from 26.4 xG (0.72 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cuiaba 2–2 Londrina | 2.51–1.09 | 68% · 17% · 15% | Draw against the xG: Cuiaba had 68% |
| Novorizontino 2–1 Vila Nova | 2.16–0.53 | 75% · 17% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Novorizontino |
| Operario-PR 1–0 America Mineiro | 1.95–0.92 | 61% · 21% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Operario-PR |
| Criciuma 1–0 São Bernardo | 1.51–0.31 | 68% · 25% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Criciuma |
| Athletic Club 1–0 Avai | 1.38–0.13 | 70% · 26% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Athletic Club |
| Atletico Goianiense 2–0 Ponte Preta | 2.59–0.74 | 77% · 15% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Atletico Goianiense |
| Juventude 2–0 Ceara | 0.86–1.09 | 28% · 31% · 41% | Close call, Juventude won |
| Fortaleza EC 2–1 Sport Recife | 1.28–2.24 | 21% · 20% · 59% | Won against the xG: Fortaleza EC |
| Nautico Recife 0–1 Goias | 0.99–1.41 | 26% · 27% · 47% | Win in line with xG for Goias |
| Botafogo SP 0–1 CRB | 1.84–0.83 | 61% · 22% · 16% | Won against the xG: CRB |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.