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9 of 10 matches with xG: 21 goals from 18.6 xG (1.13 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cuiaba 1–0 America Mineiro | 1.11–0.44 | 52% · 33% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Cuiaba |
| Fortaleza EC 2–0 Ponte Preta | 1.74–0.48 | 68% · 22% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Fortaleza EC |
| Criciuma 1–0 Sport Recife | 1.43–0.98 | 47% · 27% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Criciuma |
| Londrina 5–0 CRB | 2.44–1.14 | 66% · 18% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Londrina |
| Novorizontino 3–0 Atletico Goianiense | 1.56–0.48 | 64% · 25% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Novorizontino |
| Goias 2–0 Ceara | 0.52–0.64 | 25% · 43% · 33% | Close call, Goias won |
| Nautico Recife 0–0 Juventude | 0.81–0.62 | 37% · 38% · 26% | Draw in line with xG |
| Botafogo SP 3–1 Avai | 1.39–0.31 | 65% · 27% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Botafogo SP |
| Vila Nova 2–1 São Bernardo | 2.00–0.54 | 72% · 19% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Vila Nova |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.