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10 of 10 matches with xG: 28 goals from 21.9 xG (1.28 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avai 2–1 America Mineiro | 1.81–0.77 | 62% · 22% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Avai |
| Novorizontino 0–1 Criciuma | 1.00–0.78 | 40% · 33% · 28% | Close call, Criciuma won |
| Vila Nova 2–1 Fortaleza EC | 1.61–1.09 | 49% · 25% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Vila Nova |
| Ceara 0–1 CRB | 0.79–1.30 | 23% · 29% · 49% | Win in line with xG for CRB |
| Operario-PR 3–2 Ponte Preta | 1.97–1.01 | 60% · 21% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Operario-PR |
| Goias 1–1 Sport Recife | 0.54–0.26 | 34% · 51% · 14% | Draw in line with xG |
| Nautico Recife 2–1 Londrina | 1.93–0.95 | 60% · 22% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Nautico Recife |
| Athletic Club 2–1 São Bernardo | 0.70–1.76 | 14% · 23% · 63% | Won against the xG: Athletic Club |
| Cuiaba 0–1 Atletico Goianiense | 0.36–0.42 | 21% · 53% · 26% | Close call, Atletico Goianiense won |
| Botafogo SP 4–2 Juventude | 2.06–0.79 | 67% · 20% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Botafogo SP |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.