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10 of 10 matches with xG: 25 goals from 25.5 xG (0.98 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ceara 2–1 Londrina | 0.65–1.24 | 19% · 30% · 51% | Won against the xG: Ceara |
| Cuiaba 1–1 Goias | 2.34–0.46 | 80% · 15% · 6% | Draw against the xG: Cuiaba had 80% |
| Ponte Preta 0–2 Avai | 0.41–1.49 | 10% · 26% · 64% | Win in line with xG for Avai |
| São Bernardo 1–1 Nautico Recife | 1.13–1.17 | 35% · 28% · 37% | Draw in line with xG |
| Operario-PR 0–0 Vila Nova | 0.38–0.24 | 26% · 59% · 15% | Draw in line with xG |
| Criciuma 0–2 Fortaleza EC | 1.00–1.51 | 25% · 26% · 49% | Win in line with xG for Fortaleza EC |
| Athletic Club 1–4 Novorizontino | 1.51–2.65 | 20% · 18% · 62% | Win in line with xG for Novorizontino |
| Sport Recife 3–0 America Mineiro | 2.60–0.58 | 81% · 13% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Sport Recife |
| Atletico Goianiense 3–0 Botafogo SP | 1.93–0.25 | 79% · 17% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Atletico Goianiense |
| Juventude 2–1 CRB | 1.77–2.23 | 31% · 20% · 49% | Close call, Juventude won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.