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8 of 10 matches with xG: 24 goals from 20.9 xG (1.15 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Criciuma 2–0 Cuiaba | 0.25–1.08 | 9% · 34% · 57% | Won against the xG: Criciuma |
| Athletic Club 5–0 Vila Nova | 2.91–0.87 | 79% · 13% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Athletic Club |
| Goias 0–1 Fortaleza EC | 0.52–0.59 | 26% · 44% · 30% | Close call, Fortaleza EC won |
| Novorizontino 3–1 Avai | 2.50–0.44 | 82% · 13% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Novorizontino |
| Juventude 2–2 Atletico Goianiense | 1.56–0.74 | 57% · 25% · 18% | Draw against the xG: Juventude had 57% |
| Ceara 2–1 Sport Recife | 1.75–1.32 | 48% · 23% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Ceara |
| Londrina 1–2 Operario-PR | 1.82–2.70 | 25% · 18% · 57% | Win in line with xG for Operario-PR |
| Ponte Preta 0–2 São Bernardo | 0.64–1.21 | 20% · 30% · 50% | Win in line with xG for São Bernardo |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.