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9 of 10 matches with xG: 31 goals from 27.3 xG (1.13 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Goianiense 4–0 Criciuma | 1.20–0.62 | 50% · 31% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Atletico Goianiense |
| Juventude 0–2 Athletic Club | 1.92–0.92 | 61% · 22% · 17% | Won against the xG: Athletic Club |
| Fortaleza EC 1–1 Ceara | 1.11–0.98 | 38% · 30% · 32% | Draw in line with xG |
| Novorizontino 1–1 Cuiaba | 2.69–0.81 | 77% · 14% · 9% | Draw against the xG: Novorizontino had 77% |
| America Mineiro 0–2 São Bernardo | 1.45–0.75 | 54% · 27% · 19% | Won against the xG: São Bernardo |
| Botafogo SP 1–3 Goias | 2.54–1.46 | 61% · 18% · 21% | Won against the xG: Goias |
| Londrina 6–0 Ponte Preta | 2.76–1.00 | 74% · 15% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Londrina |
| Nautico Recife 3–3 Operario-PR | 3.47–1.49 | 75% · 13% · 12% | Draw against the xG: Nautico Recife had 75% |
| CRB 2–1 Sport Recife | 1.82–0.34 | 74% · 20% · 6% | Win in line with xG for CRB |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.