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9 of 10 matches with xG: 20 goals from 18.6 xG (1.08 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Novorizontino 0–0 São Bernardo | 0.56–0.27 | 35% · 50% · 15% | Draw in line with xG |
| Vila Nova 2–0 Londrina | 1.36–0.39 | 62% · 28% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Vila Nova |
| Nautico Recife 3–1 Sport Recife | 1.27–1.68 | 29% · 24% · 47% | Won against the xG: Nautico Recife |
| Goias 0–1 Atletico Goianiense | 1.29–0.64 | 52% · 29% · 18% | Won against the xG: Atletico Goianiense |
| Criciuma 3–0 Avai | 0.82–0.05 | 54% · 44% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Criciuma |
| CRB 3–0 Cuiaba | 2.55–0.56 | 80% · 13% · 6% | Win in line with xG for CRB |
| Fortaleza EC 2–2 Athletic Club | 2.15–1.00 | 64% · 20% · 17% | Draw against the xG: Fortaleza EC had 64% |
| America Mineiro 0–1 Juventude | 0.38–1.19 | 12% · 31% · 57% | Win in line with xG for Juventude |
| Botafogo SP 2–0 Ponte Preta | 1.64–0.77 | 58% · 24% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Botafogo SP |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.