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8 of 10 matches with xG: 18 goals from 20.2 xG (0.89 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club 1–2 Sport Recife | 1.74–0.59 | 65% · 23% · 12% | Won against the xG: Sport Recife |
| São Bernardo 3–1 CRB | 0.56–1.93 | 10% · 20% · 70% | Won against the xG: São Bernardo |
| Londrina 0–2 Criciuma | 0.89–1.08 | 30% · 31% · 40% | Win in line with xG for Criciuma |
| Juventude 3–0 Operario-PR | 2.38–1.65 | 54% · 19% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Juventude |
| Avai 0–1 Ceara | 1.85–1.58 | 44% · 22% · 33% | Close call, Ceara won |
| Atletico Goianiense 2–0 America Mineiro | 1.60–0.45 | 66% · 24% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Atletico Goianiense |
| Cuiaba 2–0 Ponte Preta | 2.45–0.06 | 90% · 9% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Cuiaba |
| Botafogo SP 0–1 Vila Nova | 1.14–0.22 | 60% · 33% · 7% | Won against the xG: Vila Nova |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.