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9 of 10 matches with xG: 20 goals from 19.7 xG (1.01 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sport Recife 2–1 São Bernardo | 1.63–1.99 | 32% · 22% · 46% | Close call, Sport Recife won |
| Goias 2–1 Athletic Club | 1.66–1.69 | 38% · 23% · 39% | Close call, Goias won |
| Avai 2–1 Londrina | 0.88–0.63 | 39% · 36% · 25% | Win in line with xG for Avai |
| Operario-PR 1–2 Botafogo SP | 0.56–0.68 | 26% · 41% · 33% | Close call, Botafogo SP won |
| America Mineiro 0–1 Fortaleza EC | 0.43–1.59 | 10% · 24% · 66% | Win in line with xG for Fortaleza EC |
| CRB 3–1 Atletico Goianiense | 1.92–1.07 | 57% · 22% · 21% | Win in line with xG for CRB |
| Vila Nova 0–0 Cuiaba | 1.13–0.73 | 45% · 31% · 24% | Draw in line with xG |
| Ceara 1–0 Criciuma | 0.77–0.56 | 37% · 39% · 24% | Close call, Ceara won |
| Nautico Recife 0–2 Novorizontino | 0.18–1.62 | 4% · 22% · 75% | Win in line with xG for Novorizontino |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.