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9 of 10 matches with xG: 23 goals from 22.5 xG (1.02 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Juventude 2–2 São Bernardo | 1.86–1.35 | 49% · 23% · 28% | Draw in line with xG |
| Atletico Goianiense 1–1 Sport Recife | 2.03–1.84 | 43% · 21% · 36% | Draw in line with xG |
| Nautico Recife 0–2 Vila Nova | 0.60–0.70 | 27% · 40% · 33% | Close call, Vila Nova won |
| Cuiaba 0–1 Avai | 1.66–0.47 | 67% · 23% · 10% | Won against the xG: Avai |
| Operario-PR 0–2 Goias | 1.57–0.86 | 54% · 25% · 21% | Won against the xG: Goias |
| Novorizontino 5–1 Ponte Preta | 1.68–1.40 | 44% · 24% · 32% | Win in line with xG for Novorizontino |
| Criciuma 1–0 America Mineiro | 1.47–0.15 | 72% · 24% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Criciuma |
| Botafogo SP 1–0 Ceara | 0.86–0.50 | 42% · 38% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Botafogo SP |
| Athletic Club 2–2 Londrina | 1.35–2.16 | 24% · 21% · 56% | Draw against the xG: Londrina had 56% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.