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9 of 10 matches with xG: 19 goals from 18.2 xG (1.05 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cuiaba 1–1 Botafogo SP | 0.78–1.23 | 24% · 30% · 47% | Draw in line with xG |
| Ponte Preta 1–0 America Mineiro | 0.88–0.93 | 32% · 33% · 35% | Close call, Ponte Preta won |
| Sport Recife 1–0 Novorizontino | 1.50–0.65 | 58% · 26% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Sport Recife |
| Juventude 1–0 Londrina | 0.70–0.47 | 36% · 42% · 22% | Close call, Juventude won |
| Ceara 3–3 Vila Nova | 1.02–1.70 | 23% · 24% · 53% | Draw against the xG: Vila Nova had 53% |
| Operario-PR 0–0 Fortaleza EC | 0.85–0.56 | 40% · 37% · 23% | Draw in line with xG |
| Atletico Goianiense 2–1 Avai | 1.53–0.80 | 55% · 26% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Atletico Goianiense |
| Criciuma 3–1 CRB | 1.77–1.18 | 51% · 23% · 25% | Win in line with xG for Criciuma |
| Athletic Club 0–1 Nautico Recife | 0.66–0.97 | 24% · 34% · 42% | Win in line with xG for Nautico Recife |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.