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6 of 10 matches with xG: 13 goals from 18.4 xG (0.71 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Figueirense 0–0 Londrina | 1.62–1.49 | 41% · 24% · 35% | Draw in line with xG |
| Aparecidense 1–1 Volta Redonda | 1.62–0.85 | 56% · 25% · 20% | Draw against the xG: Aparecidense had 56% |
| Tombense 0–1 CSA | 1.17–0.94 | 41% · 30% · 29% | Close call, CSA won |
| Nautico Recife 2–0 Botafogo PB | 1.28–0.36 | 60% · 29% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Nautico Recife |
| Sampaio Correa 2–2 ABC | 2.71–1.55 | 62% · 17% · 20% | Draw against the xG: Sampaio Correa had 62% |
| Floresta 2–2 Ypiranga-RS | 4.16–0.62 | 93% · 5% · 2% | Draw against the xG: Floresta had 93% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.