HNL 2025/2026 xG Round-Up: Matchday 16

Matchday 16 in xG

4 of 5 matches with xG: 15 goals from 10.3 xG (1.46 goals per xG).

• Most xG without a win: Dinamo Zagreb 1–1 HNK Hajduk Split (xG 1.41–0.50). Draw against the xG: Dinamo Zagreb had 60% to win on xG.
• Biggest win against the xG: NK Slaven Belupo 2–1 HNK Gorica (xG 0.77–1.58). The winner had 18% on xG.
• Win most in line with xG: HNK Rijeka 3–1 Vukovar (xG 2.30–0.70). The winner had 73% on xG.
• Most xG: NK Osijek 1–5 Istra 1961 (xG 1.28–1.76). 3.04 xG in all.
• Most one-sided: HNK Rijeka 3–1 Vukovar (xG 2.30–0.70). An xG gap of 1.60.
• Most goals above xG: Istra 1961, +3.24 goals above xG.
• Most goals below xG: HNK Gorica, -0.58 goals below xG.

Every match

Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.

More matchdays

Matchday 15 · Matchday 17