Croatia HNL 2025/26 xG Round-Up, Matchday 17

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Matchday 17 in xG4 of 5 matches with xG: 15 goals from 10.9 xG (1.38 goals per xG).
Most xG without a win: NK Osijek 1–1 HNK Gorica (xG 1.46–0.30). Draw against the xG: NK Osijek had 67% to win on xG.
Win most in line with xG: Vukovar 2–0 NK Varazdin (xG 2.27–0.43). The winner had 79% on xG.
Most xG: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–3 HNK Hajduk Split (xG 0.81–2.59). 3.40 xG in all.
Most one-sided: Vukovar 2–0 NK Varazdin (xG 2.27–0.43). An xG gap of 1.84.
Most goals above xG: Dinamo Zagreb, +3.05 goals above xG.
Most goals below xG: NK Osijek, -0.46 goals below xG.
Every matchMatchxGChances (home · draw · away)Result on xG
Vukovar 2–0 NK Varazdin2.27–0.4379% · 15% · 6%Win in line with xG for Vukovar
NK Osijek 1–1 HNK Gorica1.46–0.3067% · 26% · 7%Draw against the xG: NK Osijek had 67%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–3 HNK Hajduk Split0.81–2.599% · 15% · 76%Win in line with xG for HNK Hajduk Split
NK Slaven Belupo 2–5 Dinamo Zagreb1.06–1.9520% · 22% · 58%Win in line with xG for Dinamo Zagreb
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.
More matchdaysMatchday 16 · Matchday 18

Match	xG	Chances (home · draw · away)	Result on xG
Vukovar 2–0 NK Varazdin	2.27–0.43	79% · 15% · 6%	Win in line with xG for Vukovar
NK Osijek 1–1 HNK Gorica	1.46–0.30	67% · 26% · 7%	Draw against the xG: NK Osijek had 67%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–3 HNK Hajduk Split	0.81–2.59	9% · 15% · 76%	Win in line with xG for HNK Hajduk Split
NK Slaven Belupo 2–5 Dinamo Zagreb	1.06–1.95	20% · 22% · 58%	Win in line with xG for Dinamo Zagreb

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HNL 2025/2026 xG Round-Up: Matchday 17

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