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4 of 5 matches with xG: 13 goals from 11.8 xG (1.10 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2–1 Vukovar | 1.63–1.07 | 50% · 25% · 25% | Win in line with xG for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb |
| HNK Rijeka 2–2 NK Slaven Belupo | 0.85–2.64 | 10% · 15% · 75% | Draw against the xG: NK Slaven Belupo had 75% |
| HNK Hajduk Split 1–2 Istra 1961 | 2.18–1.48 | 54% · 21% · 26% | Won against the xG: Istra 1961 |
| NK Osijek 0–3 Dinamo Zagreb | 0.08–1.85 | 1% · 17% · 82% | Win in line with xG for Dinamo Zagreb |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.