Croatia HNL 2026/27 xG Round-Up, Matchday 12

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Matchday 12 in xG5 of 5 matches with xG: 14 goals from 14.2 xG (0.98 goals per xG).
Biggest win against the xG: Rudes 1–0 Dinamo Zagreb (xG 1.09–2.60). The winner had 14% on xG.
Win most in line with xG: HNK Hajduk Split 5–0 HNK Gorica (xG 2.13–0.31). The winner had 80% on xG.
Most xG: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–3 NK Osijek (xG 1.91–2.21). 4.12 xG in all.
Most one-sided: HNK Hajduk Split 5–0 HNK Gorica (xG 2.13–0.31). An xG gap of 1.82.
Most goals above xG: HNK Hajduk Split, +2.87 goals above xG.
Most goals below xG: Dinamo Zagreb, -2.60 goals below xG.
Every matchMatchxGChances (home · draw · away)Result on xG
NK Slaven Belupo 0–2 Istra 19610.77–1.0826% · 32% · 42%Win in line with xG for Istra 1961
HNK Hajduk Split 5–0 HNK Gorica2.13–0.3180% · 15% · 4%Win in line with xG for HNK Hajduk Split
Rudes 1–0 Dinamo Zagreb1.09–2.6014% · 16% · 70%Won against the xG: Rudes
HNK Rijeka 1–1 NK Varazdin1.24–0.8944% · 29% · 27%Draw in line with xG
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–3 NK Osijek1.91–2.2134% · 20% · 46%Win in line with xG for NK Osijek
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.
More matchdaysMatchday 11 · Matchday 13

Match	xG	Chances (home · draw · away)	Result on xG
NK Slaven Belupo 0–2 Istra 1961	0.77–1.08	26% · 32% · 42%	Win in line with xG for Istra 1961
HNK Hajduk Split 5–0 HNK Gorica	2.13–0.31	80% · 15% · 4%	Win in line with xG for HNK Hajduk Split
Rudes 1–0 Dinamo Zagreb	1.09–2.60	14% · 16% · 70%	Won against the xG: Rudes
HNK Rijeka 1–1 NK Varazdin	1.24–0.89	44% · 29% · 27%	Draw in line with xG
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–3 NK Osijek	1.91–2.21	34% · 20% · 46%	Win in line with xG for NK Osijek

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HNL 2026/2027 xG Round-Up: Matchday 12

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