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7 of 8 matches with xG: 17 goals from 16.4 xG (1.04 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hradec Králové 1–2 Karviná | 1.37–2.33 | 22% · 19% · 59% | Win in line with xG for Karviná |
| Plzen 1–1 FK Jablonec | 1.63–1.85 | 34% · 22% · 43% | Draw in line with xG |
| Sigma Olomouc 0–0 Dukla Praha | 0.54–0.12 | 38% · 55% · 7% | Draw in line with xG |
| Zlin 1–1 Slovácko | 1.42–0.26 | 67% · 26% · 7% | Draw against the xG: Zlin had 67% |
| Bohemians 1905 0–2 Slavia Praha | 1.07–0.60 | 47% · 33% · 20% | Won against the xG: Slavia Praha |
| Slovan Liberec 2–1 Pardubice | 1.22–0.69 | 49% · 30% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Slovan Liberec |
| Sparta Praha 3–2 Mlada Boleslav | 1.57–1.73 | 35% · 23% · 42% | Close call, Sparta Praha won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.