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12 of 12 matches with xG: 37 goals from 33.5 xG (1.11 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield Wednesday 1–2 Southampton | 0.56–1.39 | 15% · 28% · 57% | Win in line with xG for Southampton |
| Blackburn 2–1 West Brom | 1.45–0.83 | 52% · 27% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Blackburn |
| Bristol City 1–1 Preston | 0.90–1.06 | 30% · 31% · 39% | Draw in line with xG |
| Middlesbrough 0–1 Millwall | 0.74–1.23 | 22% · 30% · 48% | Win in line with xG for Millwall |
| Norwich 2–1 Hull City | 2.58–0.37 | 85% · 12% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Norwich |
| Plymouth 3–1 Huddersfield | 2.17–2.02 | 43% · 20% · 37% | Win in line with xG for Plymouth |
| Stoke City 4–1 Rotherham | 2.42–0.86 | 72% · 17% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Stoke City |
| Swansea 1–1 Birmingham | 1.37–0.77 | 51% · 28% · 21% | Draw against the xG: Swansea had 51% |
| Watford 4–0 QPR | 2.67–0.40 | 85% · 11% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Watford |
| Leicester 2–1 Coventry | 1.51–1.86 | 32% · 22% · 46% | Close call, Leicester won |
| Leeds 2–2 Cardiff | 1.77–1.34 | 48% · 23% · 29% | Draw in line with xG |
| Sunderland 1–2 Ipswich | 1.92–1.26 | 53% · 22% · 25% | Won against the xG: Ipswich |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.