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12 of 12 matches with xG: 37 goals from 33.9 xG (1.09 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry 3–0 Middlesbrough | 0.95–1.33 | 27% · 28% · 45% | Won against the xG: Coventry |
| Birmingham 1–0 Leeds | 1.56–0.36 | 68% · 24% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Birmingham |
| Cardiff 1–2 QPR | 2.06–1.35 | 54% · 21% · 25% | Won against the xG: QPR |
| Huddersfield 0–1 Leicester | 1.11–1.32 | 31% · 27% · 41% | Win in line with xG for Leicester |
| Hull City 4–2 Sheffield Wednesday | 1.96–0.52 | 72% · 19% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Hull City |
| Ipswich 2–0 Stoke City | 1.93–0.61 | 69% · 20% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Ipswich |
| Millwall 0–1 Bristol City | 0.49–0.94 | 19% · 36% · 45% | Win in line with xG for Bristol City |
| Preston 2–1 Sunderland | 0.63–1.44 | 16% · 27% · 57% | Won against the xG: Preston |
| Rotherham 2–2 Blackburn | 0.72–2.70 | 7% · 13% · 79% | Draw against the xG: Blackburn had 79% |
| Southampton 4–4 Norwich | 3.76–2.06 | 69% · 13% · 18% | Draw against the xG: Southampton had 69% |
| Watford 0–0 Plymouth | 1.35–0.88 | 48% · 28% · 24% | Draw in line with xG |
| West Brom 3–2 Swansea | 1.55–2.32 | 25% · 20% · 55% | Won against the xG: West Brom |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.