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12 of 12 matches with xG: 27 goals from 27.3 xG (0.99 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds 1–1 West Brom | 1.57–0.35 | 68% · 24% · 8% | Draw against the xG: Leeds had 68% |
| Plymouth 1–2 Southampton | 1.39–2.18 | 24% · 20% · 55% | Win in line with xG for Southampton |
| Blackburn 1–2 Hull City | 1.61–2.10 | 30% · 21% · 49% | Win in line with xG for Hull City |
| Bristol City 0–2 Birmingham | 0.81–1.40 | 22% · 27% · 51% | Win in line with xG for Birmingham |
| Leicester 2–1 Cardiff | 0.69–0.87 | 27% · 36% · 37% | Close call, Leicester won |
| Middlesbrough 1–1 Huddersfield | 1.99–1.31 | 53% · 22% · 25% | Draw against the xG: Middlesbrough had 53% |
| QPR 0–1 Ipswich | 1.30–1.34 | 36% · 26% · 38% | Win in line with xG for Ipswich |
| Sheffield Wednesday 0–1 Preston | 0.45–0.40 | 26% · 51% · 23% | Close call, Preston won |
| Stoke City 1–0 Watford | 0.95–0.71 | 40% · 34% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Stoke City |
| Sunderland 2–1 Rotherham | 1.34–0.69 | 52% · 28% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Sunderland |
| Swansea 1–1 Coventry | 0.73–0.86 | 29% · 35% · 36% | Draw in line with xG |
| Norwich 3–1 Millwall | 1.73–0.49 | 68% · 22% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Norwich |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.