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12 of 12 matches with xG: 36 goals from 32.4 xG (1.11 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hull City 1–1 Bristol City | 1.48–3.62 | 11% · 12% · 77% | Draw against the xG: Bristol City had 77% |
| Birmingham 2–1 Plymouth | 2.18–1.41 | 55% · 20% · 24% | Win in line with xG for Birmingham |
| Cardiff 2–1 Sheffield Wednesday | 2.09–0.90 | 65% · 20% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Cardiff |
| Coventry 0–0 Sunderland | 1.31–0.69 | 52% · 29% · 20% | Draw against the xG: Coventry had 52% |
| Huddersfield 0–4 Norwich | 0.98–2.69 | 11% · 15% · 74% | Win in line with xG for Norwich |
| Ipswich 3–4 Leeds | 2.47–1.63 | 56% · 19% · 25% | Won against the xG: Leeds |
| Millwall 1–0 Stoke City | 0.98–1.67 | 22% · 24% · 54% | Won against the xG: Millwall |
| Preston 2–1 Swansea | 0.59–0.35 | 34% · 48% · 18% | Close call, Preston won |
| Rotherham 1–2 Leicester | 0.64–1.40 | 17% · 28% · 55% | Win in line with xG for Leicester |
| Southampton 2–1 QPR | 0.42–0.64 | 20% · 45% · 35% | Close call, Southampton won |
| West Brom 4–2 Middlesbrough | 0.66–1.79 | 13% · 22% · 65% | Won against the xG: West Brom |
| Watford 0–1 Blackburn | 1.39–0.45 | 61% · 27% · 12% | Won against the xG: Blackburn |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.