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12 of 12 matches with xG: 35 goals from 32.6 xG (1.07 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham 1–1 Millwall | 1.84–0.50 | 70% · 21% · 9% | Draw against the xG: Birmingham had 70% |
| Sunderland 5–0 Southampton | 1.94–0.84 | 63% · 21% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Sunderland |
| Swansea 1–2 Bristol City | 1.44–2.30 | 23% · 20% · 57% | Win in line with xG for Bristol City |
| Coventry 3–3 Watford | 2.11–1.27 | 57% · 21% · 23% | Draw against the xG: Coventry had 57% |
| Ipswich 3–2 Cardiff | 2.36–1.67 | 53% · 20% · 27% | Win in line with xG for Ipswich |
| Leeds 0–0 Sheffield Wednesday | 1.28–1.02 | 42% · 28% · 30% | Draw in line with xG |
| Leicester 0–1 Hull City | 1.28–0.36 | 60% · 29% · 10% | Won against the xG: Hull City |
| Middlesbrough 0–2 QPR | 1.31–0.60 | 54% · 29% · 17% | Won against the xG: QPR |
| Plymouth 3–0 Blackburn | 1.23–1.49 | 31% · 25% · 43% | Close call, Plymouth won |
| Rotherham 2–1 Norwich | 0.55–1.24 | 16% · 30% · 53% | Won against the xG: Rotherham |
| Stoke City 0–2 Preston | 2.13–2.02 | 42% · 20% · 38% | Close call, Preston won |
| West Brom 1–2 Huddersfield | 1.06–0.79 | 41% · 32% · 27% | Close call, Huddersfield won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.