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12 of 12 matches with xG: 28 goals from 33.0 xG (0.85 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hull City 1–1 Coventry | 1.47–0.47 | 62% · 26% · 12% | Draw against the xG: Hull City had 62% |
| Southampton 1–4 Leicester | 1.56–4.14 | 9% · 10% · 81% | Win in line with xG for Leicester |
| Blackburn 2–1 Middlesbrough | 2.18–2.56 | 34% · 19% · 47% | Close call, Blackburn won |
| Bristol City 0–0 West Brom | 1.02–0.53 | 47% · 34% · 19% | Draw in line with xG |
| Huddersfield 2–0 Rotherham | 1.92–0.37 | 75% · 19% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Huddersfield |
| Norwich 1–0 Stoke City | 1.29–1.20 | 39% · 27% · 34% | Win in line with xG for Norwich |
| Preston 2–1 Plymouth | 1.52–1.51 | 38% · 24% · 38% | Win in line with xG for Preston |
| QPR 1–3 Sunderland | 0.30–2.42 | 3% · 12% · 84% | Win in line with xG for Sunderland |
| Sheffield Wednesday 0–1 Ipswich | 0.46–1.67 | 10% · 23% · 67% | Win in line with xG for Ipswich |
| Watford 2–0 Birmingham | 0.41–0.85 | 17% · 39% · 44% | Won against the xG: Watford |
| Cardiff 2–0 Swansea | 1.53–0.60 | 60% · 26% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Cardiff |
| Millwall 0–3 Leeds | 0.45–2.59 | 4% · 12% · 83% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.