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12 of 12 matches with xG: 35 goals from 27.7 xG (1.26 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City 4–1 Plymouth | 1.61–0.58 | 63% · 24% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Bristol City |
| Cardiff 3–2 Coventry | 0.56–0.91 | 22% · 36% · 42% | Won against the xG: Cardiff |
| Preston 2–1 Birmingham | 0.60–1.14 | 19% · 32% · 49% | Won against the xG: Preston |
| QPR 1–1 Swansea | 1.05–0.57 | 47% · 34% · 20% | Draw in line with xG |
| Southampton 0–1 Ipswich | 0.84–0.67 | 37% · 36% · 27% | Close call, Ipswich won |
| Sheffield Wednesday 1–1 Middlesbrough | 1.36–0.69 | 53% · 28% · 19% | Draw against the xG: Sheffield Wednesday had 53% |
| Blackburn 1–3 Sunderland | 2.74–1.92 | 56% · 18% · 27% | Won against the xG: Sunderland |
| Huddersfield 2–2 Stoke City | 0.98–2.75 | 11% · 15% · 74% | Draw against the xG: Stoke City had 74% |
| Hull City 0–0 Leeds | 1.01–1.49 | 26% · 26% · 48% | Draw in line with xG |
| Millwall 3–0 Rotherham | 1.47–0.41 | 64% · 26% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Millwall |
| Watford 2–2 West Brom | 0.89–0.65 | 39% · 36% · 25% | Draw in line with xG |
| Norwich 0–2 Leicester | 0.81–1.97 | 15% · 21% · 65% | Win in line with xG for Leicester |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.