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12 of 12 matches with xG: 34 goals from 35.6 xG (0.96 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham 0–0 QPR | 1.16–0.95 | 41% · 30% · 30% | Draw in line with xG |
| Ipswich 4–3 Blackburn | 3.01–0.80 | 81% · 12% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Ipswich |
| Leeds 3–0 Watford | 2.34–0.18 | 86% · 12% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
| Leicester 1–0 Bristol City | 2.10–0.27 | 81% · 15% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Leicester |
| Middlesbrough 2–1 Southampton | 3.11–1.44 | 71% · 15% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| Plymouth 6–2 Norwich | 3.17–1.93 | 63% · 16% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Plymouth |
| Rotherham 1–1 Preston | 0.09–1.76 | 2% · 18% · 80% | Draw against the xG: Preston had 80% |
| Swansea 3–0 Sheffield Wednesday | 1.97–0.81 | 65% · 21% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Swansea |
| West Brom 0–0 Millwall | 1.81–1.17 | 52% · 23% · 25% | Draw against the xG: West Brom had 52% |
| Stoke City 1–3 Hull City | 0.55–1.31 | 16% · 29% · 55% | Win in line with xG for Hull City |
| Sunderland 0–1 Cardiff | 1.19–1.67 | 27% · 24% · 49% | Win in line with xG for Cardiff |
| Coventry 1–1 Huddersfield | 2.01–0.77 | 66% · 20% · 13% | Draw against the xG: Coventry had 66% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.