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12 of 12 matches with xG: 41 goals from 28.4 xG (1.45 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield Wednesday 0–3 Sunderland | 0.52–1.57 | 12% · 25% · 63% | Win in line with xG for Sunderland |
| Southampton 3–1 Leeds | 1.48–0.92 | 50% · 26% · 23% | Win in line with xG for Southampton |
| Bristol City 2–3 Stoke City | 1.20–0.96 | 41% · 29% · 29% | Close call, Stoke City won |
| Cardiff 2–0 Rotherham | 1.25–0.59 | 53% · 30% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Cardiff |
| Huddersfield 1–1 Ipswich | 1.32–1.36 | 36% · 26% · 38% | Draw in line with xG |
| Hull City 1–1 Plymouth | 1.73–0.70 | 62% · 23% · 15% | Draw against the xG: Hull City had 62% |
| Millwall 0–3 Swansea | 1.39–1.20 | 41% · 26% · 32% | Close call, Swansea won |
| Norwich 2–0 Birmingham | 1.27–1.14 | 39% · 28% · 33% | Win in line with xG for Norwich |
| Preston 0–4 West Brom | 0.35–1.31 | 10% · 29% · 61% | Win in line with xG for West Brom |
| QPR 1–3 Coventry | 0.93–1.47 | 24% · 26% · 50% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
| Watford 2–3 Middlesbrough | 1.45–1.03 | 47% · 26% · 27% | Won against the xG: Middlesbrough |
| Blackburn 1–4 Leicester | 1.42–1.80 | 30% · 23% · 47% | Win in line with xG for Leicester |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.