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12 of 12 matches with xG: 27 goals from 25.7 xG (1.05 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham 4–1 Huddersfield | 1.78–2.31 | 30% · 20% · 50% | Close call, Birmingham won |
| Ipswich 3–0 Hull City | 0.94–0.89 | 35% · 33% · 32% | Win in line with xG for Ipswich |
| Middlesbrough 2–0 Cardiff | 1.56–0.36 | 68% · 24% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| Plymouth 0–2 Millwall | 0.75–0.95 | 28% · 34% · 39% | Win in line with xG for Millwall |
| Stoke City 0–1 Southampton | 0.66–0.92 | 25% · 35% · 40% | Win in line with xG for Southampton |
| West Brom 1–0 Sheffield Wednesday | 1.21–0.16 | 65% · 31% · 5% | Win in line with xG for West Brom |
| Coventry 1–0 Blackburn | 0.88–0.74 | 37% · 35% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
| Leeds 1–0 QPR | 1.89–0.30 | 76% · 18% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
| Leicester 3–0 Preston | 1.48–0.43 | 64% · 26% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Leicester |
| Sunderland 2–0 Watford | 1.25–0.46 | 56% · 30% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Sunderland |
| Swansea 2–1 Norwich | 2.36–1.47 | 57% · 19% · 23% | Win in line with xG for Swansea |
| Rotherham 1–2 Bristol City | 1.32–0.64 | 53% · 29% · 18% | Won against the xG: Bristol City |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.