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12 of 12 matches with xG: 37 goals from 32.1 xG (1.15 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham 3–1 West Brom | 1.48–1.17 | 44% · 26% · 30% | Win in line with xG for Birmingham |
| Sunderland 0–4 Middlesbrough | 0.55–2.53 | 6% · 14% · 80% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| Coventry 1–1 Norwich | 1.91–0.39 | 74% · 19% · 7% | Draw against the xG: Coventry had 74% |
| Ipswich 4–2 Preston | 2.30–0.40 | 81% · 14% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Ipswich |
| Leeds 2–1 Bristol City | 2.51–0.55 | 80% · 14% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
| Leicester 2–0 Stoke City | 1.86–0.34 | 75% · 19% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Leicester |
| Millwall 2–2 Hull City | 0.87–1.19 | 27% · 30% · 43% | Draw in line with xG |
| Plymouth 1–3 Swansea | 1.20–2.24 | 19% · 20% · 61% | Win in line with xG for Swansea |
| QPR 0–4 Blackburn | 1.06–1.99 | 20% · 21% · 59% | Win in line with xG for Blackburn |
| Sheffield Wednesday 0–0 Huddersfield | 0.72–0.68 | 32% · 38% · 30% | Draw in line with xG |
| Southampton 1–1 Rotherham | 3.30–0.14 | 95% · 5% · 1% | Draw against the xG: Southampton had 95% |
| Cardiff 1–1 Watford | 0.69–2.04 | 12% · 19% · 69% | Draw against the xG: Watford had 69% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.