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12 of 12 matches with xG: 28 goals from 21.1 xG (1.33 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Preston 1–1 Millwall | 0.48–0.34 | 29% · 52% · 19% | Draw in line with xG |
| Blackburn 1–0 Cardiff | 0.90–0.56 | 42% · 36% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Blackburn |
| Bristol City 1–0 Coventry | 0.36–0.49 | 20% · 51% · 29% | Close call, Bristol City won |
| Huddersfield 2–1 QPR | 0.47–1.04 | 16% · 34% · 49% | Won against the xG: Huddersfield |
| Hull City 1–2 Southampton | 1.24–1.50 | 31% · 25% · 43% | Win in line with xG for Southampton |
| Middlesbrough 1–0 Birmingham | 1.63–0.24 | 73% · 22% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| Norwich 2–3 Leeds | 0.90–1.38 | 24% · 27% · 48% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
| Stoke City 2–1 Sunderland | 0.61–1.80 | 12% · 22% · 66% | Won against the xG: Stoke City |
| Swansea 1–3 Leicester | 0.57–2.36 | 7% · 15% · 77% | Win in line with xG for Leicester |
| Watford 1–0 Sheffield Wednesday | 0.45–0.39 | 27% · 51% · 22% | Close call, Watford won |
| West Brom 0–0 Plymouth | 0.75–0.48 | 38% · 41% · 21% | Draw in line with xG |
| Rotherham 2–2 Ipswich | 1.27–0.90 | 45% · 29% · 26% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.