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12 of 12 matches with xG: 27 goals from 28.4 xG (0.95 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Huddersfield 0–4 Cardiff | 1.47–1.48 | 38% · 25% · 38% | Win in line with xG for Cardiff |
| Millwall 1–2 Blackburn | 1.80–1.11 | 54% · 23% · 23% | Won against the xG: Blackburn |
| Norwich 1–2 Middlesbrough | 0.50–1.17 | 16% · 32% · 53% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| Swansea 0–1 Watford | 0.74–0.80 | 30% · 36% · 34% | Close call, Watford won |
| Leicester 1–0 Sunderland | 1.39–0.95 | 47% · 27% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Leicester |
| West Brom 2–0 QPR | 2.59–0.14 | 90% · 9% · 1% | Win in line with xG for West Brom |
| Birmingham 0–2 Hull City | 0.61–1.32 | 17% · 29% · 54% | Win in line with xG for Hull City |
| Bristol City 0–1 Ipswich | 0.92–1.53 | 23% · 26% · 52% | Win in line with xG for Ipswich |
| Plymouth 3–0 Sheffield Wednesday | 1.19–1.18 | 36% · 28% · 36% | Win in line with xG for Plymouth |
| Preston 2–2 Southampton | 0.84–0.77 | 34% · 35% · 30% | Draw in line with xG |
| Rotherham 2–0 Coventry | 1.36–2.12 | 24% · 21% · 55% | Won against the xG: Rotherham |
| Stoke City 1–0 Leeds | 0.69–1.72 | 15% · 23% · 62% | Won against the xG: Stoke City |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.