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12 of 12 matches with xG: 35 goals from 32.1 xG (1.09 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds 4–1 Huddersfield | 1.75–0.90 | 57% · 23% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
| Southampton 3–1 Birmingham | 2.29–0.60 | 76% · 16% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Southampton |
| Blackburn 0–1 Swansea | 2.23–1.03 | 65% · 19% · 16% | Won against the xG: Swansea |
| Cardiff 2–0 Bristol City | 0.88–0.95 | 32% · 33% · 36% | Close call, Cardiff won |
| Hull City 1–0 Preston | 0.43–0.38 | 26% · 52% · 22% | Close call, Hull City won |
| Ipswich 3–2 Plymouth | 2.01–1.61 | 47% · 21% · 31% | Win in line with xG for Ipswich |
| Middlesbrough 0–2 Stoke City | 0.88–1.24 | 26% · 29% · 45% | Win in line with xG for Stoke City |
| QPR 1–2 Leicester | 0.46–1.24 | 14% · 30% · 56% | Win in line with xG for Leicester |
| Sunderland 3–1 Norwich | 2.48–0.81 | 74% · 16% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Sunderland |
| Watford 2–2 Millwall | 2.27–0.97 | 67% · 19% · 15% | Draw against the xG: Watford had 67% |
| Sheffield Wednesday 2–0 Rotherham | 2.60–0.35 | 86% · 11% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Wednesday |
| Coventry 0–2 West Brom | 1.82–1.96 | 37% · 21% · 42% | Win in line with xG for West Brom |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.