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12 of 12 matches with xG: 28 goals from 26.7 xG (1.05 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leicester 0–1 Leeds | 0.64–1.35 | 18% · 28% · 54% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
| Birmingham 2–2 Ipswich | 1.27–1.48 | 33% · 25% · 42% | Draw in line with xG |
| Bristol City 1–0 Sheffield Wednesday | 1.18–0.74 | 46% · 31% · 23% | Win in line with xG for Bristol City |
| Huddersfield 0–0 Watford | 0.15–0.37 | 10% · 63% · 27% | Draw in line with xG |
| Millwall 0–1 Southampton | 0.50–1.15 | 16% · 32% · 52% | Win in line with xG for Southampton |
| Plymouth 3–3 Middlesbrough | 1.03–3.22 | 8% · 12% · 80% | Draw against the xG: Middlesbrough had 80% |
| Preston 3–2 Coventry | 2.30–2.28 | 41% · 19% · 40% | Win in line with xG for Preston |
| Rotherham 1–1 QPR | 0.63–0.65 | 29% · 40% · 30% | Draw in line with xG |
| Stoke City 0–0 Cardiff | 0.38–0.39 | 23% · 53% · 24% | Draw in line with xG |
| Swansea 0–0 Sunderland | 0.87–1.88 | 17% · 22% · 61% | Draw against the xG: Sunderland had 61% |
| West Brom 3–1 Hull City | 0.95–0.56 | 44% · 36% · 21% | Win in line with xG for West Brom |
| Norwich 1–3 Blackburn | 1.33–1.36 | 36% · 26% · 38% | Win in line with xG for Blackburn |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.