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12 of 12 matches with xG: 34 goals from 33.6 xG (1.01 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn 1–2 Preston | 1.46–1.12 | 45% · 26% · 29% | Won against the xG: Preston |
| Sunderland 3–1 Birmingham | 3.09–1.37 | 72% · 14% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Sunderland |
| Cardiff 2–3 Norwich | 1.25–2.85 | 14% · 15% · 70% | Win in line with xG for Norwich |
| Coventry 0–0 Stoke City | 1.11–0.67 | 46% · 32% · 22% | Draw in line with xG |
| Hull City 1–0 Huddersfield | 1.41–0.10 | 72% · 25% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Hull City |
| Ipswich 3–2 Swansea | 3.65–1.44 | 78% · 12% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Ipswich |
| Leeds 2–1 Plymouth | 1.49–1.39 | 40% · 25% · 35% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
| Middlesbrough 1–0 Leicester | 0.98–0.80 | 38% · 33% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| QPR 0–0 Bristol City | 0.38–0.44 | 22% · 52% · 26% | Draw in line with xG |
| Sheffield Wednesday 0–4 Millwall | 1.35–1.49 | 34% · 25% · 41% | Win in line with xG for Millwall |
| Southampton 2–1 West Brom | 1.02–2.20 | 16% · 19% · 64% | Won against the xG: Southampton |
| Watford 5–0 Rotherham | 2.21–0.38 | 80% · 15% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Watford |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.