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12 of 12 matches with xG: 32 goals from 29.2 xG (1.10 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rotherham 1–1 Leeds | 0.66–1.64 | 15% · 24% · 61% | Draw against the xG: Leeds had 61% |
| Birmingham 2–1 Sheffield Wednesday | 1.32–2.13 | 23% · 21% · 56% | Won against the xG: Birmingham |
| Bristol City 3–2 Middlesbrough | 2.00–0.60 | 71% · 19% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Bristol City |
| Huddersfield 1–1 Southampton | 0.44–1.36 | 12% · 28% · 60% | Draw against the xG: Southampton had 60% |
| Leicester 2–0 Watford | 2.88–0.54 | 85% · 11% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Leicester |
| Millwall 0–3 Coventry | 1.86–2.27 | 32% · 20% · 48% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
| Norwich 1–0 QPR | 0.67–0.56 | 33% · 41% · 26% | Close call, Norwich won |
| Plymouth 2–0 Sunderland | 0.77–1.72 | 16% · 23% · 60% | Won against the xG: Plymouth |
| Preston 1–2 Cardiff | 0.32–0.76 | 14% · 43% · 43% | Win in line with xG for Cardiff |
| Stoke City 0–3 Blackburn | 0.82–1.71 | 18% · 24% · 59% | Win in line with xG for Blackburn |
| Swansea 2–2 Hull City | 1.15–1.18 | 35% · 28% · 37% | Draw in line with xG |
| West Brom 2–0 Ipswich | 1.58–0.22 | 72% · 23% · 5% | Win in line with xG for West Brom |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.