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12 of 12 matches with xG: 42 goals from 30.8 xG (1.36 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff 0–1 West Brom | 0.48–1.22 | 15% · 31% · 55% | Win in line with xG for West Brom |
| Coventry 1–0 Plymouth | 1.38–0.56 | 57% · 28% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Coventry |
| Hull City 4–1 Rotherham | 3.72–0.53 | 92% · 6% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Hull City |
| Middlesbrough 4–0 Preston | 2.87–0.18 | 91% · 8% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Middlesbrough |
| QPR 4–2 Stoke City | 2.36–0.93 | 69% · 18% · 13% | Win in line with xG for QPR |
| Watford 3–2 Norwich | 2.04–0.57 | 72% · 19% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Watford |
| Blackburn 4–2 Birmingham | 0.72–1.31 | 21% · 29% · 51% | Won against the xG: Blackburn |
| Leeds 3–1 Swansea | 2.48–0.38 | 83% · 13% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
| Sheffield Wednesday 1–1 Leicester | 1.42–1.06 | 45% · 27% · 28% | Draw in line with xG |
| Southampton 1–0 Bristol City | 0.81–0.72 | 34% · 36% · 29% | Close call, Southampton won |
| Sunderland 1–2 Huddersfield | 2.55–0.86 | 74% · 16% · 10% | Won against the xG: Huddersfield |
| Ipswich 3–1 Millwall | 1.21–0.43 | 56% · 31% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Ipswich |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.