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12 of 12 matches with xG: 32 goals from 31.2 xG (1.02 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Preston 0–2 QPR | 0.26–1.35 | 7% · 28% · 65% | Win in line with xG for QPR |
| West Brom 1–2 Leicester | 0.97–1.27 | 28% · 28% · 43% | Win in line with xG for Leicester |
| Birmingham 0–0 Rotherham | 0.73–1.16 | 23% · 31% · 46% | Draw in line with xG |
| Hull City 1–2 Watford | 1.92–0.69 | 67% · 21% · 13% | Won against the xG: Watford |
| Ipswich 2–1 Coventry | 1.23–1.29 | 35% · 27% · 38% | Close call, Ipswich won |
| Leeds 3–2 Middlesbrough | 3.35–1.24 | 78% · 12% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
| Millwall 1–1 Sunderland | 0.68–1.56 | 16% · 25% · 59% | Draw against the xG: Sunderland had 59% |
| Plymouth 2–1 Stoke City | 1.72–1.63 | 40% · 23% · 37% | Win in line with xG for Plymouth |
| Sheffield Wednesday 3–1 Blackburn | 1.05–1.58 | 25% · 25% · 50% | Won against the xG: Sheffield Wednesday |
| Southampton 2–0 Cardiff | 2.68–1.03 | 72% · 16% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Southampton |
| Swansea 1–1 Huddersfield | 1.44–0.30 | 67% · 26% · 7% | Draw against the xG: Swansea had 67% |
| Bristol City 1–2 Norwich | 1.16–0.94 | 41% · 30% · 30% | Close call, Norwich won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.