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12 of 12 matches with xG: 30 goals from 27.3 xG (1.10 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blackburn 2–1 Bristol City | 1.17–0.87 | 43% · 30% · 27% | Win in line with xG for Blackburn |
| Huddersfield 1–3 Preston | 0.55–0.63 | 26% · 42% · 31% | Close call, Preston won |
| Rotherham 0–2 West Brom | 0.07–0.48 | 4% · 60% · 36% | Close call, West Brom won |
| Stoke City 1–1 Swansea | 2.91–0.61 | 84% · 11% · 5% | Draw against the xG: Stoke City had 84% |
| Watford 1–2 Ipswich | 1.29–1.82 | 27% · 23% · 50% | Win in line with xG for Ipswich |
| Sunderland 1–0 Leeds | 1.09–0.55 | 49% · 33% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Sunderland |
| Cardiff 0–1 Birmingham | 0.88–1.65 | 20% · 24% · 56% | Win in line with xG for Birmingham |
| Coventry 1–1 Southampton | 0.51–0.83 | 21% · 38% · 40% | Draw in line with xG |
| Leicester 3–2 Millwall | 2.04–1.73 | 46% · 21% · 33% | Win in line with xG for Leicester |
| Norwich 3–1 Sheffield Wednesday | 1.55–1.34 | 42% · 25% · 33% | Win in line with xG for Norwich |
| QPR 0–0 Plymouth | 1.40–0.73 | 53% · 28% · 20% | Draw against the xG: QPR had 53% |
| Middlesbrough 1–2 Hull City | 1.25–1.31 | 35% · 27% · 38% | Win in line with xG for Hull City |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.