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12 of 12 matches with xG: 40 goals from 34.1 xG (1.17 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich 2–2 Norwich | 2.07–0.81 | 67% · 20% · 14% | Draw against the xG: Ipswich had 67% |
| Bristol City 1–0 Sunderland | 0.94–0.74 | 39% · 34% · 27% | Win in line with xG for Bristol City |
| Hull City 3–0 Cardiff | 1.90–0.69 | 66% · 21% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Hull City |
| Leeds 1–1 Coventry | 1.34–0.48 | 58% · 28% · 13% | Draw against the xG: Leeds had 58% |
| Millwall 1–1 Huddersfield | 1.57–1.44 | 41% · 24% · 35% | Draw in line with xG |
| Plymouth 3–2 Rotherham | 2.63–1.47 | 62% · 18% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Plymouth |
| Preston 1–5 Watford | 2.20–3.02 | 28% · 17% · 55% | Win in line with xG for Watford |
| Sheffield Wednesday 2–1 QPR | 0.86–0.37 | 46% · 39% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Sheffield Wednesday |
| Southampton 4–0 Blackburn | 3.74–0.74 | 89% · 7% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Southampton |
| Swansea 1–2 Middlesbrough | 1.44–1.10 | 45% · 26% · 29% | Won against the xG: Middlesbrough |
| West Brom 1–1 Stoke City | 1.28–0.43 | 58% · 29% · 12% | Draw against the xG: West Brom had 58% |
| Birmingham 2–3 Leicester | 0.49–2.34 | 6% · 15% · 79% | Win in line with xG for Leicester |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.