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12 of 12 matches with xG: 33 goals from 24.6 xG (1.34 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Preston 2–1 Leeds | 0.43–1.35 | 12% · 28% · 60% | Won against the xG: Preston |
| Millwall 2–0 QPR | 1.39–0.59 | 57% · 28% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Millwall |
| Cardiff 2–2 Plymouth | 1.17–1.23 | 35% · 28% · 38% | Draw in line with xG |
| Coventry 2–0 Sheffield Wednesday | 0.50–1.58 | 11% · 24% · 64% | Won against the xG: Coventry |
| Huddersfield 3–0 Blackburn | 1.21–0.52 | 53% · 31% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Huddersfield |
| Hull City 0–1 Sunderland | 0.81–1.03 | 28% · 32% · 40% | Win in line with xG for Sunderland |
| Rotherham 1–0 Middlesbrough | 0.07–1.28 | 2% · 28% · 70% | Won against the xG: Rotherham |
| Southampton 5–0 Swansea | 2.05–0.39 | 77% · 17% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Southampton |
| Watford 1–4 Bristol City | 0.93–1.31 | 26% · 28% · 45% | Win in line with xG for Bristol City |
| West Brom 1–0 Norwich | 2.06–0.47 | 75% · 18% · 7% | Win in line with xG for West Brom |
| Birmingham 1–3 Stoke City | 1.60–1.26 | 45% · 25% · 30% | Close call, Stoke City won |
| Ipswich 1–1 Leicester | 1.07–0.30 | 55% · 34% · 10% | Draw against the xG: Ipswich had 55% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.